Markets edge higher, eyes on tariffs and Fed policy

Activity was subdued across foreign exchange markets this morning. Traders were sitting on their hands ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcements, which are expected at 21:00 BST. 

The standout performers overnight were the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Aussie found support following yesterday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged. 

Otherwise, the US dollar continues to consolidate at lower levels following its sell-off in the first quarter of this year.

Gold, which had been on a relentless march higher, saw a pullback for the first time in six sessions after hitting an intraday peak of $3,150. While still firmly in demand as a hedge against uncertainty, the precious metal faces near-term resistance as markets digest the latest moves.

Silver steadied after taking a hit in the previous session, tracking broader risk sentiment.

Oil prices were little changed ahead of weekly inventory data. Crude has pulled back from yesterday’s high but continues to hover around levels last seen six weeks ago.  WTI crude now trades in the mid-$70s. Today’s inventory report is expected to show a slight decline in stockpiles. Meanwhile, natural gas dipped under the $4 mark following its recent run-up.

Crypto markets faced modest downside pressure overnight, with Ether down 3% as broader risk sentiment wavers. Bitcoin, which continues to hold above $80,000, remains vulnerable to fluctuations tied to macroeconomic developments and risk appetite.

The VIX remains elevated at 21, reflecting lingering uncertainty. While the index hasn’t signalled outright panic, its position above 20 suggests that traders remain on edge ahead of key events.

• Trump tariff announcement (Today, 4 PM ET): The White House is expected to provide further details on reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect immediately on Wednesday.
• The UK seeks exemption from tariffs: British officials are pushing for exclusions, though expectations remain muted.
• ADP jobs print, oil inventories, Fed commentary: Traders will be watching today’s economic releases and central bank remarks for insights into market direction.
• Goldman Sachs analysis: Analysts argue that tariff revenues will be significantly lower than White House projections, raising questions about broader economic impact.

With Trump’s self-proclaimed ‘Liberation Day’ speech set for 4 PM ET (9 PM UK), markets are bracing for potential shifts in sentiment. Futures indicate uncertainty with the ‘buy the rumour’ trade failing to materialise so far.

Gold’s retreat from record highs suggests that if equity markets react positively, further downside for the precious metal could be in store. Meanwhile, oil’s steady climb raises questions about how long the rally can persist. Crypto remains on the back foot, and FX markets are offering little in the way of directional signals.

Plenty of moving parts are in play—piecing them together remains the real challenge.