Technical analysis & fundamentals
The latest data from the ONS shows that retail sales volumes have risen by 1.7% in January 2025, following a 0.6% fall (after revised figures) in December 2024. A large part of this growth came from food stores, which saw a 5.6% rise on the month, the largest since March 2020 and their highest since June 2023.
However, non-food store sales declined by 1.3% over the month, and online spending fell by 1.7%. This comes as no surprise following last week's inflation figures of 3%. It further highlights consumers' lack of spending power, as they act more cautiously when buying non-essential goods.
Retail Sales rose 1.0% on an annualised basis, which was also above the consensus expectation. Sterling rallied on the news as the stronger numbers made it more difficult for the Bank of England to justify cutting rates. But Retail Sales is a volatile data point, and the real issue for the Bank is the jump in inflation that we saw earlier this week.
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