Asian Pacific mixed as China lags

US stock indices eked out modest gains on Tuesday. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended up 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. The small cap Russell 2000 was the exception as it slipped 0.2%. Mega-cap tech provided the bulk of the upward momentum, helping the NASDAQ recoup Monday’s losses.

Source: TN Trader

US stock index futures built on those gains in early trade this morning. After last night’s close, Marvell Technology jumped more than 10% on upbeat data-centre demand projections. This has helped to underpin the tech sector, which was broadly firmer ahead of today's open.

In early trade, Apple and Meta Platforms were the only ‘Magnificent Seven’ constituents in the red, while semiconductors were also firmer. Nvidia continues to recover ground lost in November. Just over a week ago, it traded below $170 to hit its lowest level in over two months.

Yesterday, it pushed back over resistance around $180, as buyers rushed back in to ‘buy the dip’. This has been a highly effective ‘strategy’ over the past three years. Nvidia has had an effective monopoly on the design of high-end chips so vital in the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Yet it appears to have some competition now. Nvidia customer, Meta Platforms, is talking to Google about using its proprietary TPUs in Meta’s data centres.

Meanwhile, there’s talk that Amazon’s Trainium3 chip can give Nvidia’s GPUs a run for their money. And China’s DeepSeek is back again, having released two new open-source AI models that can match Gemini 3 Pro and ChatGPT-5.

Earlier this year, DeepSeek released its first AI model, which, it claimed, was developed at a fraction of the cost of US versions. While the news took time to filter through, it contributed to a selloff in Nvidia, which saw the company lose 38% from February through to April.   

In other news, the CME’s FedWatch Tool now predicts an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC meeting next week. Investors were also factoring in the probability of additional cuts next year.

Kevin Hassett, thought to be President Trump’s preferred choice to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May, is a well-known dove. It’s thought that Mr Trump will announce his decision before Christmas. Today brings the release of two important economic updates, ADP Payrolls and the ISM Services PMI.

European stock indices were mostly firmer on the open, as they moved in tandem with US stock index futures. But they all pulled back from earlier highs as the US majors gave back some of their early gains.

Source: TN Trader

In corporate news, German ‘fashion house’ Hugo Boss upgraded its guidance as part of a major strategic overhaul. The company expects a short-term sales dip but anticipates recovery in 2027. Spain’s fast-fashion conglomerate Inditex jumped over 8% after it released a 10.6% leap in currency-adjusted sales from the same period last year. Eurozone and UK Services PMIs were universally better-than-expected.

The US dollar was sharply lower across the board in early Forex trade this morning. The Dollar Index dropped back below 99.00 to hit its lowest level in over two weeks. The selloff follows a series of failed attempts by the cash Dollar Index to break out above resistance around 100.00. This level has kept all dollar rallies in check since May this year.

Markets suddenly priced in a Fed rate cut well over a week ago, after New York Fed President John Williams indicated a dovish shift. But traders may be cutting their dollar exposure as it becomes increasingly likely that Kevin Hassett, currently director of the National Economic Council, will soon be named as Jerome Powell’s successor as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Mr Hassett has made it clear that he favours lower interest rates. This helped propel the GBP/USD up towards 1.3300, taking it to its best levels in over a month. Domestically, cooling labour conditions together with speculation that inflation has finally peaked, add to last week’s truly disastrous Autumn Budget, both fiscally and politically. These have all contributed to a 90% probability of a 25-basis point cut this month from the Bank of England.

Source: TN Trader

Gold traded either side of $4,200 this morning and struggled to extend gains. Positive sentiment towards US equities has built once again, following a sharp dip over the first three weeks of November. This has constrained safe-haven appetite amongst investors.

On Monday, gold traded up to $4,265, its best level in around six weeks. But it sold off yesterday, dropping as low as $4,164 in early afternoon trade. While the chart looks quite constructive from a bullish perspective, sentiment is quite different to that seen in the six weeks from the beginning of September.

Back then, the upside progress was steady and relentless and ultimately took gold to a succession of record highs. Now gold is far more volatile as it experiences sharp daily swings in both directions.

Source: TN Trader

Silver hit a fresh all-time high overnight, just a few cents short of $59 per ounce. But volatility remains a significant issue for traders attempting to get in on the act. 200 or 300 tick intra-day ranges are becoming a feature of this market, which can make it feel more like a meme stock than a commodity trade. But that is typical of silver once it makes a move.

Just look back at the charts leading up to the prior peak in 2011. After spiking to a fresh record at $58.94 before pulling back, the precious metal slipped another 1% to hold near $58. The extreme price action reflects heightened sensitivity to thin liquidity conditions over the Thanksgiving holiday. But these now appear to have carried over into the standard trading day.

Source: TN Trader

Front-month WTI pushed back over $59 per barrel in early trade this morning. This reversed Tuesday’s decline, giving the bulls some hope that they can push prices back over $60 per barrel.

Source: TN Trader

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with President Putin in Moscow to discuss peace terms for ending Russia’s war with Ukraine. But early indications suggest that talks were unsuccessful, with President Trump describing them as: "a mess”. This means, of course, that sanctions (such as they are) remain in place on Russian oil.

The latest US inventory update from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an unexpectedly large increase of 2.48 million barrels of crude, with gasoline and distillate inventories also rising sharply.

The official weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration will be released later today. Chart-wise, crude continues to trade sideways, with a slight downside bias. Front-month WTI needs to break and hold above $60 for sentiment to become more positive.

Natural gas was up over 2% overnight as bullish momentum continued. The market’s march toward 5 BTU on the January futures contract is gaining in probability. Sentiment has been boosted by recent strength and the absence of any significant bearish catalysts in the immediate data flow.

Crypto markets continued to recover after Monday’s sharp washout. Bitcoin climbed towards $93,000 as dip-buyers stepped in, reinforcing the idea that the area around $80,000 is acting as a near-term support. Ether also advanced as risk appetite improved across global markets. The daily MACDs in both markets have bounced off oversold levels.

The December VIX futures contract drifted below 18, indicating a further easing in implied volatility following the previous day’s stabilisation in US equities. The move supports risk-on positioning, particularly ahead of today’s macro catalysts, ADP Payrolls and ISM Services PMI.

Currently, the backdrop is shifting in favour of a year-end rally. Seasonal trends support the bulls, with the VIX well below 20.0, and the Fed appears aligned, with markets pricing nearly a 90% probability of a cut next week.

The question now is whether policymakers would risk surprising markets and thereby derailing a potential Santa Rally. All eyes turn to today’s ADP report, now a critical labour-market checkpoint with the official Non-Farm Payroll report delayed until December 16.