More record highs

US stock indices posted another positive session on Wednesday. The rally was once again tech-led, with the NASDAQ adding 1.3% for the session. The S&P, Dow and Russell 2000 added 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

The S&P’s IT sector was up 1.8%, and there were significant gains for Tesla, Microsoft and Micron Technology. Tech stocks were mixed in early trade this morning, and this lack of carry-through could be seen in the mixed performance across US stock index futures in early trade.

Source: TN Trader

NVIDIA released its latest quarterly results after last night’s close. The stock flew higher in the immediate aftermath and was soon trading above $203 to hit its highest level since early November. But prices subsequently reversed, for a high-low range of $10, or 5%. It’s probably fair to say that NVIDIA’s results failed to fully impress, despite broadly solid numbers.

There were beats for both sales and revenues, while forward guidance was also stronger than expected. But this wasn’t the ‘stellar’ results with which the market has become accustomed, and this has left many investors pondering: ‘What next?’

It’s also worth noting that the stock had already rallied ahead of the earnings report. And while it remains comfortably above a modest area of resistance around $195, it still wouldn’t be a complete surprise if investors began to reduce their exposure once again.

Meanwhile, Salesforce was down around 3% this morning after issuing disappointing long-term revenue guidance. It’s fair to point out that sentiment in software remains fragile amid ongoing concerns that rapidly advancing AI tools could disrupt incumbent business models.

Looking ahead, there are more earnings today, and the big releases include Warner Bros. Discovery, Dell Technologies, Intuit, Monster Beverages and CoreWeave. Weekly Unemployment Claims are also out today, with Producer Prices tomorrow.

European and UK stock indices maintained their upside momentum this morning, despite some early weakness across US stock index futures. A heavy earnings calendar dominated attention, with results due from Deutsche Telekom, Schneider Electric, Allianz, AXA, Munich Re, Engie, Eni and Saint-Gobain amongst others.

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) rallied over 6% after it announced plans for a £3 billion share buyback, while results showed a 56% increase in pre-tax profits when compared to a year ago. Rolls-Royce also jumped more than 6% after it significantly upgraded its outlook for this year and beyond. The news helped to push the UK’s FTSE 100 above 10,800 for the first time in history.

Source: TN Trader

Meanwhile, European car giant Stellantis recorded its first annual loss in history as it took massive write-downs on its electric vehicles, which are being shunned by car buyers.

Trade across FX markets was both mixed and subdued this morning. The US dollar was little changed, and the Dollar Index continued to move sideways and consolidate, having failed to break above some mild resistance around 97.70 on cash.

Source: TN Trader

There were more hawkish comments from Fed officials this week, this time from Austan Goolsbee and Susan Collins. Both stressed that inflation remains above target, implying that there was a high bar for further rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen recovered modestly overnight, having weakened significantly this week, after falling sharply the week before. The USDJPY was approaching 152.00 just a fortnight ago, but came within sight of 157.00 yesterday morning.

But comments overnight from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed that rate hikes remain possible later this year. However, political pressure from Prime Minister Takaichi and the appointment of dovish board members have tempered expectations of aggressive tightening.

Gold was a touch firmer this morning, adding to modest gains from yesterday. Despite this, gold has still not managed to recover its losses from Tuesday. This was when it dropped sharply, briefly breaking below $5,100, having traded at $5,250 the day before.

Gold has shown signs of stabilising this week, and further gains can’t be ruled out. But from a bullish perspective, it should be concerning that gold has repeatedly failed to hold above $5,200 on recent upside breaks. Gold has been supported by modest US dollar weakness and lingering concerns over retaliatory tariffs and global supply chain disruption.

Despite recent hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve members, markets continue to price in the possibility of rate cuts later in the year, further underpinning the precious metal.

Source: TN Trader

Silver has continued to consolidate ahead of the US–Iran talks in Geneva. These are high risk given that the aim is to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which may be a step too far for the theocracy. Investors have noted that there is now more US military hardware in the region than at any time since the invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago, or even the liberation of Kuwait in 1991.

This uncertainty has helped support the price of silver, as has the sideways move in the US dollar. It is worth noting that silver topped $91 per ounce yesterday. This represented its highest level in three weeks.

It’s also worth noting that silver has rallied 26% in just over a week. The daily MACD suggests that momentum remains to the upside. But silver really has already rallied a very long way in a very short time.

Source: TN Trader

Crude oil prices continued to ease this morning, pulling back further from recent highs. Front-month WTI hit a seven-month high on Monday when it traded above $67 per barrel. This put it within touching distance of a downward-sloping trendline, which has its origins back at the highs hit just after the last Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

This area is acting as resistance for now, even as investors focus on the outcome of US–Iran nuclear talks. Analysts estimate that there’s roughly $7-$10 per barrel of geopolitical risk premium currently priced in. This could unwind if talks progress constructively.

Source: TN Trader

Further gains in the price of crude have been capped by oversupply signals. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude inventories surged by nearly 16 million barrels last week, the largest build since early 2023. Additional barrels are expected from Saudi exports and Iranian tanker loadings, while the US Treasury’s move to allow limited Venezuelan oil resales has added additional pressure.

Bitcoin came within a few points of $70,000 yesterday in a sharp and unexpected rally. But it subsequently reversed direction, and $70,000 continues to hold as the first line of significant resistance. While resistance held, bulls should take some encouragement from Wednesday’s rally as another retest of major support at $60,000 looked far more probable going into the session.

As noted previously, a significant break below here could trigger a bout of panic selling and increase the risk of a deeper pullback. Meanwhile, the daily MACD continues to curl up from oversold levels. The rallies were triggered by the emergence of a lawsuit involving Jane Street, which reignited debate around alleged market structure issues dating back to the Terra-Luna collapse.

Meanwhile, Ether gained more than 13% yesterday as short positions worth hundreds of millions were liquidated. Despite the bounce, traders remain cautious, questioning whether this move marks a durable shift or simply a relief rally within a broader risk-off environment.

Market volatility eased slightly, with the March VIX dropping back below 20.0. Despite this, caution remains elevated amid headline risk from earnings, geopolitics and trade policy.

US weekly Unemployment Claims should offer fresh insight into labour market conditions when released later today. Nvidia’s results were solid, though its sales outlook underwhelmed. US–Iran nuclear talks remain central for energy markets, while earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Monster, Dell and Warner Bros. Discovery should all add another layer to today’s risk landscape.