Technical analysis & fundamentals

Markets mixed as tech weakness weighs, Trump tariffs back in focus

David Morrison

SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

25 Feb 2025 - 2min Read

Wall Street saw a mixed session, with the Dow managing a slight gain while broader weakness—once again led by tech—dragged markets lower. Nvidia dropped 3%, pushing the S&P 500 to its third consecutive losing session.

Overnight, Asian markets followed suit, with declines in the Hang Seng and Nikkei. European futures point to a lower open, with the DAX set to erase its electoral gains from yesterday as concerns over the German economy persist.

Wall Street recap

The Dow eked out a minor gain, but weakness in the broader market, particularly in the tech sector, kept sentiment cautious. Nvidia’s 3% drop weighed on the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 closed lower for a third straight session.

Global markets

Asian markets struggled overnight, with the Hang Seng and Nikkei leading losses. European futures signal a weaker start, with the DAX giving back its post-election gains as recession fears linger. German GDP came in at -0.2% QoQ, in line with expectations, confirming economic contraction.

FX and commodities

In the currency markets, the Euro remained unmoved by Germany’s GDP data, while the pound held steady at around 1.26. Risk-off sentiment saw the yen gain some ground.

Gold retreated from 2950, pausing after recent strength, while silver remained flat. Oil erased early overnight gains to trade just below $71, appearing to have found a short-term base. Gas was unchanged.

Crypto under pressure

Crypto markets took a hit, with Bitcoin dropping 5% and Ethereum plunging by double that.

Volatility and market risks

The VIX edged higher into the mid-18s, showing signs of increased market unease.

Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to sharply impact Chinese exports to the US, with Canada and Mexico also set to see new trade restrictions.

JPMorgan warns that tariff headlines will remain a key risk factor throughout 2025.

Trump met with French President Macron, brushing off the meeting while stating that his team is in regular contact with Putin. Meanwhile, Putin stressed the need for European involvement in Ukraine peace talks but admitted a deal remains distant.

Key data and earnings ahead

On the economic front, US consumer confidence figures are due, alongside speeches from BOE and Fed officials. Home Depot reports earnings before the bell, while all eyes turn to Nvidia’s results tomorrow.

Market outlook

The bull case is taking a pause as Trump’s tariffs resurface as a key concern—though, in truth, they never really left. Home Depot’s earnings will likely drive Dow futures midday, while Nvidia’s results loom large. The yen benefits from the risk-off trade, gold takes a breather, and crypto suffers a sharp setback.

For now, the bears are gaining control—not an all-out grip, but enough to make their presence felt.