Figures show that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the last quarter of 2024, revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate. This primarily reflected increases in consumer and government spending that were offset by a decrease in investment.
Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-second-estimate
This is the first revision of the fourth quarter GDP number. But the release coincided with updates to weekly Unemployment Claims (which came in above expectations) and Durable Goods, which, when excluding transportation items, also came in higher than forecast.
The US dollar sold off initially, as the jobless rise increased the probability of a rate cut, as this is yet another sign that the US economy may be slowing a touch. But the dollar soon rebounded as did bond yields.
This was tied to an unexpected increase in the GDP deflator, which suggests that inflation isn’t yet ready to resume its downtrend back towards the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
