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US markets rallied as Trump hinted at tariff exemptions, boosting risk sentiment. Gold held $3K, oil climbed, and crypto pulled back amid profit-taking.

US Markets Surge as Trump Hints at Tariff Breaks

Currency markets saw little movement overnight, with the dollar holding onto its recent gains. The yen continued to weaken, and the USDJPY is now approaching the 151.00 level as risk appetite gained traction. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming central bank commentary and some key economic data releases.

FX markets quiet as yen eyes 151

Gold and silver edged higher overnight, though the gains were modest. Gold continued to hold above $3,000, supported by underlying demand but lacking fresh momentum.

Oil has extended its rally, with front-month US Light now trading above $69, as it appears to have found a short-term base in the $65 region. If the current momentum holds, crude is on track for its fourth gain in five sessions, signalling renewed stability in the market.

Crypto prices pulled back after yesterday’s sharp rally, with Bitcoin retreating to $86,000 while Ether managed to hold above $2,000. The sector remains tied to broader risk sentiment, although profit-taking appears to be the dominant theme for now.

Gold holds 3K, oil climbs, crypto pulls back

The VIX continued its decline, pulling back towards 18.00, falling quickly as risk-on sentiment gained traction. The days of sustained moves north of 20.00 seem like a distant memory, at least for now.

Volatility drops as sentiment stays firm

Trump tariff policy shifts: After suggesting tariff flexibility, Trump pledged new tariffs on autos and pharmaceuticals in the near future, keeping markets on edge.

Venezuela oil purchasers to face 25% US tariff: The latest trade action is set to impact global energy markets.

China extends an invitation to US business leaders: A potential step toward easing tensions.

Morgan Stanley sees near-term market rally: The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to lead the charge.

Tesla surges 12% on bargain hunting: Marking its best day since the election rally, but the question remains—is it a dead cat bounce or the start of something bigger?

Key headlines to watch

Plenty of Federal Reserve speakers are on tap today, which could provide further clarity on monetary policy expectations. Key data releases include:

German IFO business climate index: The primary data point for the European morning session.

US consumer confidence & housing data: Expected to provide further insight into the strength of the US economy.

Economic data and Fed speakers in focus

Monday’s stock market surge reinforced the idea that Trump’s rhetoric still holds significant sway over market sentiment. His tariff flexibility remarks were enough to push markets higher, but with further trade actions already promised, the rally's sustainability remains a question.

Tesla’s 12% jump was one of the most eye-catching moves of the day—whether it signals a true recovery or just a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. Futures suggest a cautious open, but with sentiment shifting quickly, early moves may not dictate the entire session. It’s still early in the trading week, and as always, staying nimble will be key.

Market outlook

US markets rallied for a second straight session on Monday after Trump told the press he may grant “a lot of countries” exemptions from reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd. The remarks boosted risk sentiment, sending the Dow up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 climbed close to 2% and the Nasdaq gained over 2% by the close.

Overnight, Asian Pacific stock indices were less bullish. Hong Kong slumped 2%, the Shanghai Composite was unchanged, and other regional markets posted modest gains. In Europe, after a disappointing session yesterday where early gains were quickly sold into, stock indices are all firmer, playing catch-up with Wall Street’s rally last night.

US markets surge as Trump hints at tariff breaks

US stocks rally post-Fed as Powell calms fears, gold stalls, oil steadies, and cryptos remain mixed amid cautious sentiment.

Markets Rally Post-Fed as Powell Calms Fears

Overnight in Asia, the Chinese central bank followed the Fed’s lead and kept rates unchanged, citing concerns that tariffs are weighing on the yuan. The local market fell 0.5% in response. The Nikkei was closed for a Bank Holiday leaving the ASX as the standout performer, climbing over 1% despite a concerning jobs report.

European stock indices were lower across the board in early trading. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The Bank of England (BOE) is also forecast to leave interest rates unchanged.

Asia follows suit, Europe set for a flat open

In the FX market, the US dollar was sharply higher in early trade. The Dollar Index jumped back above 103.00 as buyers returned, boosting an oversold market. The Japanese yen was also stronger overnight, as the euro and sterling backed away from recent highs. The yen was unchanged against the US dollar.

Sterling pulled back from 1.3000 against the dollar, having traded at a four-month high yesterday. Investors were trimming their exposure ahead of the BOE rate decision announcement at noon today. Meanwhile, the euro also lost ground against the dollar, pulling back below 1.09000, having hit a five-month high earlier in the week.

Yen leads FX space as dollar eases

Gold was little changed in early trade this morning, after hitting a high of $3,057 overnight, buoyed by the Fed’s dovish tone and dollar weakness. The metal’s seven-day rally shows signs of pausing as traders start to question whether the upside momentum can continue without a pullback. 

Silver edged slightly lower and appears to be losing recent upside momentum. If it continues to underperform gold, then there’s a danger that the next big move could be to the downside, rather than playing catch-up as many have anticipated.

Front-month WTI crude was hovering just above $67 per barrel in early trade, supported by risk sentiment despite a reported build in weekly inventory data. Concerns about weak Chinese demand and a global surplus continue to weigh on crude, with prices apparently rangebound between $65 and $68. Gas drifted lower, with mild weather forecasts weighing on sentiment.

Cryptos were mixed this morning after getting a lift from increased risk appetite yesterday evening. Prices stalled overnight with little to move the needle either way. For now, Bitcoin appears to be stabilising around $86,000.

Gold stalls as oil finds support, crypto mixed

The VIX fell below 20, having pulled back on rising bullish equity sentiment yesterday. This reflected a more settled mood among traders. However, the calm may prove temporary, with key central bank decisions still ahead.

Volatility drops as sentiment stabilises

SNB and BOE rate announcements: Eyes on both central banks to see if they follow the Fed’s lead.

Economic data: Housing, jobs, and manufacturing data from the US will add more colour to the macro picture.

Earnings to watch: NIKE, FedEx, and Micron Technology are set to report after tonight’s close, potentially offering insight into consumer and tech sector health.

Key events to watch today

Powell certainly helped the bullish cause yesterday, and the question now is whether the momentum can carry through today. The Fed’s stance provided some relief, but Trump didn’t hold back in criticising the decision not to cut rates further. Meanwhile, the focus shifts to the BOE and SNB, with markets keen to see if they mirror the Fed’s cautious tone.

Gold’s relentless rally may be nearing a pause as momentum cools. Crude oil prices have steadied, but a retest of support around $65 can’t be ruled out. Crypto remains mixed, showing little sign of decisive moves either way. As earnings roll in and central banks take the spotlight, staying alert and nimble will be crucial to navigating today’s trading session.

US markets closed with solid gains yesterday after Fed Chair Powell and his team decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Powell acknowledged that tariffs could slow progress on reducing inflation, while the Fed lowered its US growth projection from 2.1% to 1.7% and raised its inflation outlook from 2.5% to 2.8%. Despite these adjustments, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts this year.

For the record, the Dow gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq led the way with a 1.4% gain.

Markets rally post-Fed as Powell calms fears

WTI crude trades just above $67 as risk sentiment offers support. Rangebound between $65 and $68, oil awaits a breakout as market signals remain mixed.

WTI Crude Holds Steady Above $67 Amid Mixed Signals

Front-month WTI crude was hovering just above $67 per barrel in early trade, supported by risk sentiment despite a reported build in weekly inventory data. Concerns about weak Chinese demand and a global surplus continue to weigh on crude, with prices currently rangebound between $65 and $68.

It remains a difficult market to call. Front-month WTI has bounced off $65 per barrel on a couple of occasions this month. This is a level which also held as support on a closing basis back in September. 

But this level doesn’t look particularly robust. In other words, it’s not the kind of support area buyers should rely on too heavily when it comes to placing their stops. 

The daily MACD has turned up but remains in negative territory without being particularly oversold. In other words, it isn’t providing any help in forecasting where prices go next. It’s possible that oil can head higher from current levels. But it’s just as likely that prices break lower. 

Overall then perhaps the most likely outcome is that oil will continue to be rangebound until there’s a catalyst to push it decisively in one direction, or another.

WTI crude holds steady above $67 amid mixed signals

Gold hits record $3,057 post-Fed, pulls back slightly; support at $3,000 eyed as momentum cools.

Gold Hits an All-Time Intra-Day High

Early yesterday morning, gold hit an all-time intra-day high of $3,057. The move followed the Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The key takeaways were that the Fed’s FOMC still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year, the same as in December.

The central bank will be paring back its balance sheet reduction, selling $5 billion in US Treasuries per month, rather than the current $25 billion, starting next month. And while it raised its inflation forecast, and dropped its expectations for US growth this year, it also downplayed inflation risks from tariffs.

All-in-all, most observers viewed the outcome as more dovish than it could have been. Gold has pulled back from its highs, but not significantly. The daily MACD remains elevated, but not seriously overbought.

Nevertheless, it could benefit from more of a pullback to take it down to levels from which another rally could start. Gold could certainly push higher from current levels. But a test of $3,000 to see if it holds as support cannot be ruled out. And a break below there raises the likelihood of a deeper pullback.

US markets ended the week higher as bulls regained control; crypto rallied, volatility eased, and key data awaits.

US Markets Rise as Bulls Take Control to End the Week

In the FX market, the dollar found itself on the back foot as risk appetite returned, but it was the Japanese yen that took the brunt of the selling. The move reflects a shift away from safe-haven assets as market sentiment continues to stabilise. Traders will be watching closely to see if the yen can find support, having steadily lost ground over the past fortnight.

Dollar on the back foot as yen takes the hit

Gold was fairly flat at the start of the new week but with a modest upside bias as the revived risk-on sentiment tempered safe-haven demand. Silver outperformed slightly, though the gains were also modest and lacked strong conviction.

Oil held steady, with little overall direction, as traders eyed the resumption of US-Russia talks this morning. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, crude prices remained anchored, with neither bulls nor bears able to take control.

Gold flat, silver outperforms, and oil holds steady

Crypto markets jumped on increased risk appetite, with Bitcoin adding 3% and Ethereum climbing 5%. The rally came as investors showed more willingness to embrace risk assets, though there are questions over the sustainability of this morning’s move as the market digests broader macro factors.

Crypto rallies as risk appetite returns

The front-month VIX dipped below 19, illustrating the risk-on mood that dominated early trading. With volatility easing, traders appeared more comfortable positioning for a bullish start to the week. However, the potential for sudden reversals remains, given the mix of economic data and geopolitical headlines on the horizon.

Volatility eases as sentiment improves

PMI data today: Sets the tone for the start of the week.

UK CPI and budget: Critical data points that could shape sentiment in the middle of the week.

US GDP and PCE price index on Friday: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is likely to be closely scrutinised.

Trump tariffs: Set to kick in next week on April 2nd, though Trump has indicated there will be flexibility.

US-Russia talks resume: Adding another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

Beijing developmental forum: Pledges increased market access, signalling a more open stance.

Heathrow shutdown probe: Ordered after Friday’s disruption.

Time change ahead: Final week of US daylight savings as the UK/Europe move to summer time next weekend.

Key data and events this week

Stock index futures point to a strong start to the new week, with bulls seemingly in control. The key question now is whether the recent wobble has been fully overcome or if lingering risks—like tariff uncertainties and US-Russia tensions—could lead to a decline in positive sentiment.

With plenty of crucial data on the calendar, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday, markets may see choppy conditions despite the positive tone. For now, the bulls have the ball and are charging down the field, but staying alert remains essential, as any sudden shifts could quickly change the game.

US markets posted minor gains on Friday, closing out the week higher for the first time in four weeks. The boost came on quadruple witching day, where approximately $5 trillion worth of options expired on the quarterly March contract, adding to volatility. Despite the choppy session, the bulls managed to take the upper hand, finishing the week on a positive note.

Overnight, Asian Pacific markets started the final full week of the quarter with modest gains, setting a cautiously optimistic tone. European stock indices were firmer in early trade, following an early bounce in US stock index futures, and helped by some upside surprises in Services and Manufacturing PMIs.

US markets edge higher as bulls take charge to end the week

S&P 500 rebounds as trade tensions ease and the Fed signals a dovish outlook.

S&P 500 Gains as Trade and Fed News Boost Markets

US stock index futures were firmer this morning, indicating a return of investor risk appetite. The positive start was helped by a more conciliatory tone from President Trump concerning existing tariffs, and those threatened in the future. 

The latter include the reciprocal tariffs threatened by the US which are due to come into effect at the beginning of next month. It also appears that reciprocal tariffs are unlikely to be as ‘random’ and ‘scattergun’ as they first appeared. Mr Trump has said that he plans to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping this week on trade issues. 

Markets have steadied somewhat following a near month-long sell-off which saw both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ drop into correction territory (defined as a fall of 10% or more from a recent high). 

Last week the Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged, as expected. But investors were relieved that the Fed still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year, leaving their December forecast unchanged. 

This comes despite Fed members downgrading their 2025 growth forecasts, while raising their expectations for inflation. The central bank also announced that it would be slowing down its balance sheet run-off. 

Starting in April, the Fed will sell $5 billion per month of Treasuries, down from $25 billion currently. This will take some pressure off the bond market, although the real benefit is the message it sends to market participants. 

Overall, the Fed was perceived as being more dovish than expected. This helped equities to rebound off recent lows, and put an end to a four-week losing streak. Tariff updates are potentially a big market-mover this week. 

In addition there are corporate results from KB Homes, Okla, GameStop, Dollar Tree, Chewy, Jeffries and Lululemon. The market is also anticipating an IPO from Nvidia-backed Coreweave. The listing is expected to raise $2.7billion, valuing the company at $26 billion. The week rounds off with an update to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE.

S&P 500 gains as trade and Fed news boost markets

Dow and Russell lead gains as gold hits record highs. Oil rebounds, crypto struggles, volatility eases amid cautious sentiment.

Bulls Secure Second Day of Gains as Dow, Russell Lead

In the currency market, the Japanese yen continued to lose ground, marking its sixth decline in seven sessions—or four straight back-to-back declines if you prefer to look at it that way. Traders are closely monitoring the BOJ meeting and looking for any signals that might stabilise the currency. 

Meanwhile, the euro remains elevated, trading north of 1.0900, and is holding steady as markets await the German debt reform vote. Sterling is also resilient, with the GBPUSD trading close to 1.3000, ahead of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

Yen slips as euro holds firm

Gold surged above $3,000, trading at new record highs as relentless demand continues to propel the precious metal higher. The move has been driven by persistent risk aversion and ongoing economic uncertainties, and it appears that nothing can slow the rally for now. Silver kept plugging away in gold’s shadow, maintaining modest gains but pushing above $34

Front-month WTI crude oil pushed above $68 per barrel, finding some upside momentum as upbeat Chinese data and ongoing Middle Eastern tensions fuelled buying interest. Despite recent downside pressure, crude is showing signs of stabilising, with traders cautiously optimistic about further upside.

On the other hand, cryptos continued to struggle with little signs of joining the broader risk rally seen in equities. Bitcoin and Ethereum both drifted lower, reflecting a lack of conviction from the crypto space as sentiment continues to lag.

Gold breaks 3K, oil gains, crypto struggles

The VIX, now trading on the April contract, dipped below 20, though it may not be telling the whole story. While volatility appears to have eased somewhat, underlying sentiment remains cautious, and traders are wary of sudden reversals.

Regarding data, Germany’s ZEW sentiment report is on tap, alongside the much-anticipated vote on debt reform. Across the Atlantic, a slew of tier-2 data is expected, including housing and import prices, though none of it is likely to significantly move the markets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments add another layer of complexity. Israel initiated a massive air strike on Gaza, reportedly killing hundreds, while a scheduled call between Putin and Trump remains on the agenda. In central bank news, Trump has picked Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to replace Barr as the Fed’s supervision head, adding to the evolving landscape ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision.

Volatility drops, but market sentiment remains cautious

The bulls are looking to extend their winning streak to a third day, though futures are showing some weakness in early trading. Sentiment is cautious but not entirely risk-averse, as positive momentum from the past two sessions continues to offer some support.

The euro remains in focus as traders await the German debt reform outcome, while gold’s record-breaking rally stays in the headlines. Oil’s modest rebound adds some optimism, but crypto remains stuck on the sidelines. With the Fed meeting looming tomorrow, traders will likely tread carefully, keeping an eye on any developments that might sway sentiment. For now, the path of least resistance appears upward, but risks remain firmly in play.

The bulls found strength for a second consecutive day, with the blue-chip Dow Industrials and the Russell 2000 leading the charge. This was despite a disappointing retail sales print, which raised some concerns but failed to derail the rally. Investors seemed more focused on bargain hunting and momentum rather than dwelling on the weak data.

Overnight, Asian Pacific markets posted broad-based gains, with Hong Kong taking the lead and the Nikkei also advancing as the two-day Bank of Japan meeting kicked off. European stock indices were firmer across the board in early trade.

Bulls secure second day of gains as Dow, Russell lead

US markets fall ahead of Fed decision, dollar rebounds, gold hits record highs, oil dips, and crypto stagnates amid cautious sentiment.

US Markets Retreat as Bears Take Control Before Fed Decision

European stock indices were weaker on the open, led by the German DAX, which fell 0.5%, as investors digest the passage of the fiscal package by the Bundestag. Market volatility has ticked up lately, with traders reacting nervously to fiscal and economic developments.

In currency markets, the dollar rebounded overnight as traders positioned themselves ahead of the Fed’s announcement. After showing signs of strength yesterday, the EURUSD pulled back to the 1.09 level, while the Japanese yen was mixed following the BOJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

Europe set for a weaker open as dollar rebounds

Gold continued its relentless ascent, pushing above $3,040 as safe-haven demand remained robust. Recent market volatility and ongoing economic uncertainties have encouraged investors to pile into the precious metal, and betting against it has proven costly so far. Despite gold's record-breaking rally, Silver lost ground overnight, pulling back below $34.

Oil was weaker in early trade, compounding yesterday’s losses. Front-month WTI fell below $66.50. Today’s weekly inventory data is expected to show a build of around 1 million barrels, which could add further downside pressure on prices. Gas moved higher but has settled into a range as volatility has tapered off recently.

Crypto markets posted modest overnight gains. Bitcoin continues to trade in the low $80,000s, giving little indication about where it is heading next. The recent stagnation reflects a lack of momentum, with sentiment struggling to shift decisively to the bullish side.

Gold marches higher, oil dips, crypto stagnates

The VIX continues to hover in the mid-20s on the April contract, signalling that caution is still the dominant sentiment. According to Goldman Sachs, Chinese markets have been outperforming US counterparts this year, with the MSCI index rising 19% year-to-date, marking the best start in its history.

On the political front, Trump and Putin’s meeting yesterday was viewed positively, with both sides agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire on energy and infrastructure targets. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, Trump’s policies are being eyed as a potential factor in the economic downturn.

In corporate news, Nvidia unveiled its Blackwell Ultra AI chip at its conference, positioning itself to capture more of the booming AI market. At the same time, retail investors appear to be abandoning the “buy the dip” mentality as the market correction deepens—a shift not seen in quite some time.

Volatility holds as Fed takes centre stage

Today’s Federal Reserve meeting at 18:00 GMT will be the focal point for markets, with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s press conference set for 30 minutes later. As it’s a quarterly meeting, the Fed’s FOMC will also release its latest forecasts for interest rates, inflation, GDP and unemployment for the rest of this year and beyond. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, the outlook and guidance will be closely scrutinised.

For now, it’s a waiting game as traders position themselves ahead of the announcement. The dollar has found support, and gold’s rally continues, leaving those betting against it in a tight spot. The bears seem to have a slight edge going into the meeting, but much will depend on how Powell communicates the Fed’s outlook. With sentiment leaning cautiously bearish, any hawkish hints could see risk assets come under further selling pressure.

US markets fell on Tuesday, snapping the two-day rebound as the bears took back control ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today. The Nasdaq is still stuck in correction territory, while the S&P 500 continues to flirt with it, as investor sentiment remains fragile.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but acknowledged upward inflation pressure, signalling a cautious stance amid rising prices. The Nikkei closed 0.3% lower, and movements elsewhere in Asia were also relatively subdued.

US markets retreat as bears take control before Fed decision

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell sharply as NVIDIA and other Big Tech stocks dropped. Geopolitical tensions and the upcoming Fed decision keep markets on edge.

S&P 500 Falls Amid Big Tech Weakness and Fed Uncertainty

US stock indices fell sharply yesterday, giving back around half of the gains made over the previous two sessions. Once again it was Big Tech that led the decline. 

There had been high hopes that generative AI chipmaker, NVIDIA, could boost investor confidence as it concluded its GPU Technology Conference. But CEO Jensen Huang was unable to provide the spark needed to ignite a big rally, and the stock sold off in response. 

NVIDIA lost around 4% yesterday, contributing to a 1.7% decline in the NASDAQ and a drop of 1.1% in the S&P 500. Tesla and Palantir also contributed to the negative session falling 5.3% and 4% respectively. 

Investors were also left nonplussed by reports which followed a phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin concerning the war in Ukraine and its aftermath. 

Mr Putin would not agree to a full 30-day ceasefire, but said he would hold back from targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, on the understanding that Ukraine would do likewise. As Russia has already done huge damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, while Ukraine has only just begun to successfully target Russia’s, this looks like a big win for Putin. 

Geopolitical commentators seem divided about the outcome of the call. But it would seem that Vladimir Putin got the best end of the talks, with some analysts insisting that Mr Trump was completely outplayed. 

US stock index futures were a touch firmer in early trade this morning, but still a long way below the highs made at the beginning of this week. 

Investors are now focused on today’s conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. The consensus view is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. But investors expect to glean clues as to their future moves. 

The FOMC will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, giving members’ forecasts for Fed Funds (via the ‘Dot Plot’), inflation, growth and unemployment for this year and beyond. It will also be interesting to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say about President Trump’s ongoing tariff programme. 

The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently suggests that there could be as many as three 25 basis point rate cuts this year. All the US majors remain oversold according to their daily MACDs, and tonight’s meeting could be significant in setting the future direction of travel.

S&P 500 falls amid big tech weakness and Fed uncertainty

Gold pushes above $3,000 to hit a fresh record high of $3,028. Could this signal a sustained rally, or is a correction on the horizon?

Gold Surges Past $3,000 Again: Is a New Rally Underway?

Gold first edged above $3,000 on Friday and did so again yesterday. On both occasions it was unable to hold above this key level, closing below here on both occasions. Could things change today? It’s certainly looking possible. 

Gold nudged back above $3,000 in the early hours of this morning and has steadily pushed higher ever since, registering a fresh record intra-day high of $3,028 on the European open. 

Silver has also made significant gains this morning, nosing back over $34 per ounce. But it still has its work cut out to break above October’s highs, just below $35. That is silver’s next target. And it will want to take out this level sooner rather than later in order to boost bullish sentiment if it is to have any chance of taking out its own all-time high from 2011, just shy of $50. 

It certainly feels as if the path of least resistance is pointing north for now, particularly with gold. However, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a downside correction at some stage. If so, traders will want to see if $3,000 can hold as support on any pullback. If so, then the odds will favour further gains.

Gold surges past $3,000 again: Is a new rally underway?

US stocks rally but end week lower amid recession fears. Gold near $3,000, oil higher, crypto mixed. Volatility persists as uncertainty looms.

US Stocks Rally Friday, But Weekly Losses Pile Up

Asian markets kicked off the week on a positive note, supported by upbeat Chinese retail and industrial data. The Nikkei led the way, outperforming its regional peers. In contrast, Europe has had a mixed open. This comes after German lawmakers moved closer to agreeing on reforms to the country’s debt brake rule. Two-thirds support is required, and the vote is expected on Tuesday.

Asia starts the week higher, Europe flat to start

Currency markets were steady in early trade this morning. The euro, buoyed last week by progress on German debt reforms, is now in a holding pattern awaiting further news. Meanwhile, the yen emerged as the early week’s loser, with the USDJPY pushing up toward the 149 level as traders await key data and central bank meetings from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

FX markets quiet as dollar awaits Fed guidance

Gold was a touch firmer in early trade and within striking distance of the key $3,000 mark. Silver was a touch weaker but had bounced off overnight lows and has $34 in its sights. Oil started the week on a positive note, bolstered by political uncertainty and supportive Chinese data. Gas also edged higher, reflecting a more optimistic tone in the energy sector.

Most crypto markets managed to crawl into positive territory this morning. Both Bitcoin and Ether appear to be consolidating. Time will tell if this is a precursor to higher prices or a pause before another leg down. Sentiment remains fragile as risk appetite continues to waver, with investors unsure whether the bounce seen on Friday has real staying power.

Gold flat, oil higher, crypto drifts lower

The VIX added 2.5% after pulling back during Friday’s risk-on rally, signalling that caution still prevails despite the bullish push to end the week. Traders are keeping a close watch on upcoming events, including a scheduled call between Putin and Trump on Tuesday.

Volatility edges higher as uncertainty remains

US Retail Sales: Today’s key data point gives insight into consumer strength amid economic concerns.

Central Bank Meetings: A packed week ahead, with the Fed, BOJ, SNB, and BOE all set to announce decisions. The Fed meeting on Wednesday remains the focal point.

Geopolitical Risk: Treasury Secretary Bessent attempted to reassure investors that the White House is actively working to stave off a financial crisis. However, industry figureheads warn that trade wars are becoming the new norm.

Inflation Outlook: US consumers expect inflation to shoot higher over the next year, adding pressure on the Fed to balance its policy stance.

Key events and data this week

Friday’s rally offered some relief for the bulls. But the question remains whether it was merely a dead cat bounce or the start of a more protracted recovery. Overnight futures suggest that sentiment remains fragile as traders hesitate to call a bottom. The dollar remains in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed meeting, while gold continues to enjoy strong support despite pulling back after briefly breaking above the key $3,000 level last week.

Oil is showing signs of life, buoyed by positive Chinese data and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but it still lacks strong conviction. Overall, the bears still have a firm grip on the market, and any attempts at a recovery may trigger further selling until clearer signals emerge.

Despite a strong rally on Friday that saw US stock indices close sharply higher across the board, the damage from the week was evident. The Dow suffered its worst week since 2023, while the Nasdaq sank deeper into correction territory. The S&P 500 entered a correction, and the Russell 2000 continued to flirt with bear market status. The root cause? Tariffs, economic weakness, slowing growth, and looming recession fears.

Overnight futures are pointing lower as market sentiment remains cautious.

US stocks rally Friday, but weekly losses pile up

US markets tumble amid recession fears and tariff woes, while Asia rebounds and crypto surges. Volatility remains elevated.

US Markets Tumble as Recession and Tariff Worries Persist

Overnight, Asian markets bounced back, closing out the week on a more positive note. Hong Kong and China led the way, showing resilience despite the turbulence across global markets. European futures also point to a positive start, with some bargain hunting likely at play.

However, not all news was upbeat—BMW reported a sharp drop in annual profits and warned of subdued Chinese demand, casting a shadow over the broader European outlook. In the UK, GDP data came in at -0.1% versus the expected +0.1%, missing forecasts and sending sterling lower. The euro remained flat, pulling back from its recent highs north of 1.09.

Asia bounces back, Europe set to open higher

The dollar appeared to find some support at lower levels and attempted to claw back some lost ground as sentiment improved a touch. Meanwhile, the yen came under pressure as the USDJPY climbed towards resistance around the 149.00 area. The greenback’s recovery could reflect some improvement in risk appetite, but sustained upside momentum remains in question.

Dollar attempts recovery as yen weakens

Gold came tantalizingly close to the key, but elusive, $3,000 per ounce mark, topping out at $2,994 before retreating slightly. The demand story remains strong, as ongoing uncertainty fuels safe-haven buying. Silver followed gold’s lead, spiking higher yesterday before flattening out today.

Oil pushed higher, trading north of 67 as risk appetite returned, driven by hopes of stabilisation in global markets. Gas also traded higher but remained below recent peaks. The bounce reflects a more optimistic tone, but concerns about oversupply and weak demand continue to cast a shadow.

Crypto markets rallied sharply overnight, benefiting from the broader risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted significant gains, with traders cautiously optimistic about sustaining the upward momentum. However, the recent volatility leaves room for doubt as the sector remains sensitive to shifting risk perceptions.

Gold falls short of 3K, oil higher, crypto surges

The VIX hovered just below 24, indicating that volatility remains elevated despite the bounce in equity markets. Today’s main data points are Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 14:00 GMT. These could provide insight into consumer confidence amid economic uncertainty.

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