You can take the origin of the current rally in the US S&P 500 back to October 2022 when the index hit an intra-day low of 3,490. But it would be just as correct to seek out the low following the Great Financial Crisis on 1st March 2009. This was when the index traded at ‘666’ – the Devil’s Number.
The market hasn’t come close to retesting this level ever since. Some technical analysts pin the start of the stock market rally on the low hit after the Wall Street Crash of 1929. But that requires a logarithmic chart and a lot of data. So here’s the daily S&P 500 from October 2023.
The index has gone from butting up against a build-up of resistance forming the upper trend line at the start of the rally, to trundling along the lower trend line now. But it’s still a bull market, and the daily MACD shows that it is not currently overbought.
Despite this, the rally is looking very long in the tooth, and the ‘Magnificent Seven’, those tech giants which have led the market higher and lower over recent years, are very expensive.
Nvidia (the second largest company after Apple by market capitalisation) reports after Wednesday’s close. Could these numbers prove to be a catalyst for the next big move in US equities?
