Crude oil was firmer again today in early morning trade. Front-month Light had pushed above $69 per barrel, building on yesterday’s gains. This took it back up to levels seen at the beginning of this month when Light was trading at $70.
Chart-wise, this is looking quite constructive from a bullish perspective. Yet traders have been in this position on many occasions this year and last. Often, crude will slowly form a base at moderately oversold levels and look set to break upwards, only for prices to fall sharply, wiping out in a day or two all the hard work from a week or more.
Maybe it’s different this time. Or not. For now, front-month Light needs to break and hold above $70 for a protracted period to rebase the daily MACD and thereby encourage fresh buying.
Source: TradingView
Fundamentally, oil prices got a boost from the fresh tariffs imposed by the US on Iranian supply. The US has also announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan energy products, in a move primarily aimed at China. Prices were also supported by the news that OPEC+ would be drawing on members, outside just Saudi Arabia and Russia, to cut production. But what that means overall, with OPEC+ ending its original production cuts next month, is unclear.
