Crude oil prices were firmer in early trade this morning, with front-month WTI trading back around Friday’s close. Crude prices fell at the beginning of this week after Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy (along with a few European leaders) appeared to have positive conversations over ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.
That suggested that sanctions on Russian oil could soon be lifted. But the situation is far more complicated, and President Trump has already suggested that Mr Putin may be in no mood to compromise in any future peace talks. In other words, it’s unlikely that the war will be over anytime soon.
Mr Trump has said that the next step is to bring Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin together for head-to-head discussions.
So far, there has been no word from Moscow to indicate that Mr Putin is prepared to take part. In the meantime, the latest sell-off in crude which began at the end of last month has decelerated and front-month WTI appears to have steadied a touch north of $62 per barrel.
Source: TradingView
Whether this proves to be a base from which crude can rally, or if this is simply a pause before prices continue lower, looks likely to depend on any data that can throw some light on the outlook for global demand and supply. Many oil analysts are forecasting that supply will outstrip demand growth for the rest of this year, and into 2026.
