Markets kick off March with mixed signals as tariffs take centre stage

David Morrison

SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

03 Mar 2025

Check out our socials

March has arrived, bringing fresh market dynamics as investors navigate inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a shifting trade landscape. Despite a late rally across Wall Street at the end of last week, equity markets struggled through most of February, with major indices posting losses.

Meanwhile, trade policy takes centre stage once again, as the US prepares to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, postponed from January, with an additional 10% on Chinese imports.

Crypto got a boost overnight from President Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve. Bitcoin and other cryptos had come under sustained selling pressure over the last fortnight with sentiment undermined by a record $1.5 billion hack and theft from the Bybit exchange.

This week brings a string of important updates on the US labour market and a rate announcement from the European Central Bank. Can these help boost risk appetite?

US markets recover, but February closed in the red

US markets ended the week and month on a positive note as inflation data helped calm nerves after earlier volatility. However, February was a weak month overall: the Dow declined 1.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq saw a steeper 4% loss.

Asian markets start March on a mixed footing

Asian markets had a mixed start to the new month. Chinese manufacturing data surprised to the upside, hitting a three-month high, though mainland stock indices closed modestly lower. The Nikkei and Australia’s ASX outperformed, providing some optimism in the region.

European markets look to the ECB's decision

European futures point to a higher open, with the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday being the key event for the region. Investors are watching for any policy shifts that could influence market sentiment.

US futures and FX markets show little movement

US stock index futures edged slightly higher while the main feature of FX this morning was the weaker US dollar. Despite escalating tensions following the high-profile showdown between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and former US President Trump, the euro gained.

Gold and oil steady as geopolitical uncertainty lingers

Gold and silver saw initial gains, with geopolitical concerns and dollar weakness providing support. Oil prices drifted lower, with front-month US Light trading below $70 per barrel. The better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data did little to support prices. Natural gas slipped slightly.

Crypto surges on Trump’s strategic reserve announcement

Cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin and ether, jumped overnight following Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve. The news injected fresh optimism into the sector after recent volatility.

Volatility and economic data in focus

The VIX dipped slightly below 19, reflecting a moderation in risk appetite. This morning, key economic data releases include Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs and CPI, followed by the all-important US ISM Manufacturing PMI later today.

Jobs data takes centre stage this week, culminating in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Early estimates point to an increase of 150K jobs.

Trade tensions heat up as tariffs rollout

Tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump escalated after Friday’s meeting, during which the Ukrainian leader left the White House without securing a deal. However, he received widespread support following a separate meeting with European leaders in London on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada are being urged to implement tariffs on China, aligning with the US measures set to take effect tomorrow. Warren Buffett weighed in on the issue, stating that tariffs act as a tax on goods.

Market outlook

The tariff rollout remains the dominant theme for the first half of this week, with investors assessing its potential impact on global trade and market sentiment. February was a weak month for stocks—historically, it often is. Crypto is emerging as an early standout on Trump’s latest announcement.

As a new week and month begin, the question remains: Can the bulls recover the ground lost in February?


Suggested articles

See allarrow-icon
arrow-icon

Gain the edge

Sign up and unlock early
access to exclusive trading
insights and educational tips.

I confirm I am 18 years old or above.

By signing up to hear from us, you agree to our terms and privacy policy.

Please keep me updated on Trade Nation’s sponsorships, news, events and offers.

The markets are moving.

Start trading now.

Get startedarrow-icon
arrow-icon

Trade on our
award-winning
platform


en-sc

Payment methods

Visa card payment method
Mastercard payment method
Skrill payment method
Neteller payment method
Ngan Luong payment method

Trade on

Regulatory bodies

UK - FCA

Australia - ASIC

Seychelles - FSA

Bahamas - SCB

South Africa - FSCA

Customer support

Sponsors of your favourite teams

The legal stuff

Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Refer to our legal documents.

Trade Nation is a trading name of Trade Nation Financial UK Ltd, a financial services company registered in England & Wales under company number 07073413, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under firm reference number 525164. Our registered office is 14 Bonhill Street, London, EC2A 4BX, United Kingdom.

Trade Nation is a trading name of Trade Nation Australia Pty Ltd, a financial services company registered in Australia under number ACN 158 065 635, is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), with licence number AFSL 422661. Our registered office is Level 17, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia.

Trade Nation is a trading name of Trade Nation Ltd., a financial services company registered in the Bahamas under number 203493 B, is authorised and regulated by the Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB), with licence number SIA-F216. Our registered office is No. 3 Bayside Executive Park, West Bay Street & Blake Road, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.

Trade Nation is a trading name of Trade Nation Financial Markets Ltd, a financial services company registered in the Seychelles under number 810589-1, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority of Seychelles (FSA) with licence number SD150. Our registered office is CT House, Office 6B, Providence, Mahe, Seychelles.

Trade Nation is a trading name of Trade Nation Financial (Pty) Ltd, a financial services company registered in South Africa under number 2018 / 418755 / 07, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA), with licence number 49846. Our registered office is 19 9th Street, Houghton Estate, Johannesburg, Gauteng, 2198 South Africa. 

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or any particular country outside the UK, Australia, South Africa, The Bahamas or Seychelles and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

© 2019-2025 Trade Nation. All Rights Reserved