The CME Group outage has affected trading on WTI. While other futures markets are back to normal, WTI pricing was unavailable as midday approached in the UK. But Brent prices showed that crude had pulled back a touch today following Thursday’s rally. Despite this, there was no indication that oil was ready to break out from the mild downward trend which had been building over the past four to five weeks.
Traders looked ahead to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, with the market already pricing in expectations of another pause in production increases. OPEC+ has already reduced its monthly output increases, even as it continues to reverse significant production cuts which began a few years ago. The group has already indicated that it will hold off on increasing output further during the first quarter of 2026.
Source: TN Trader
Meanwhile, US officials are preparing to visit Moscow next week as part of efforts to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. President Putin indicated that US proposals could form the basis for future talks, a shift that could have significant implications for Russian supply flows if sanctions ease.
Yet the broader tone remains bearish. Crude oil is on track for its fourth straight monthly decline, the longest such run since 2023, weighed down by expectations of a global surplus and rising output outside the OPEC+ alliance. JPMorgan estimates a potential surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026.
