Technical analysis & fundamentals

US markets edge higher as bulls take charge to end the week

David Morrison

SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

24 Mar 2025

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US markets posted minor gains on Friday, closing out the week higher for the first time in four weeks. The boost came on quadruple witching day, where approximately $5 trillion worth of options expired on the quarterly March contract, adding to volatility. Despite the choppy session, the bulls managed to take the upper hand, finishing the week on a positive note.

Overnight, Asian Pacific markets started the final full week of the quarter with modest gains, setting a cautiously optimistic tone. European stock indices were firmer in early trade, following an early bounce in US stock index futures, and helped by some upside surprises in Services and Manufacturing PMIs.

Dollar on the back foot as yen takes the hit

In the FX market, the dollar found itself on the back foot as risk appetite returned, but it was the Japanese yen that took the brunt of the selling. The move reflects a shift away from safe-haven assets as market sentiment continues to stabilise. Traders will be watching closely to see if the yen can find support, having steadily lost ground over the past fortnight.

Gold flat, silver outperforms, and oil holds steady

Gold was fairly flat at the start of the new week but with a modest upside bias as the revived risk-on sentiment tempered safe-haven demand. Silver outperformed slightly, though the gains were also modest and lacked strong conviction.

Oil held steady, with little overall direction, as traders eyed the resumption of US-Russia talks this morning. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, crude prices remained anchored, with neither bulls nor bears able to take control.

Crypto rallies as risk appetite returns

Crypto markets jumped on increased risk appetite, with Bitcoin adding 3% and Ethereum climbing 5%. The rally came as investors showed more willingness to embrace risk assets, though there are questions over the sustainability of this morning’s move as the market digests broader macro factors.

Volatility eases as sentiment improves

The front-month VIX dipped below 19, illustrating the risk-on mood that dominated early trading. With volatility easing, traders appeared more comfortable positioning for a bullish start to the week. However, the potential for sudden reversals remains, given the mix of economic data and geopolitical headlines on the horizon.

Key data and events this week

PMI data today: Sets the tone for the start of the week.
UK CPI and budget: Critical data points that could shape sentiment in the middle of the week.
US GDP and PCE price index on Friday: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is likely to be closely scrutinised.
Trump tariffs: Set to kick in next week on April 2nd, though Trump has indicated there will be flexibility.
US-Russia talks resume: Adding another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
Beijing developmental forum: Pledges increased market access, signalling a more open stance.
Heathrow shutdown probe: Ordered after Friday’s disruption.
Time change ahead: Final week of US daylight savings as the UK/Europe move to summer time next weekend.

Market outlook

Stock index futures point to a strong start to the new week, with bulls seemingly in control. The key question now is whether the recent wobble has been fully overcome or if lingering risks—like tariff uncertainties and US-Russia tensions—could lead to a decline in positive sentiment.

With plenty of crucial data on the calendar, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday, markets may see choppy conditions despite the positive tone. For now, the bulls have the ball and are charging down the field, but staying alert remains essential, as any sudden shifts could quickly change the game.