US markets rallied for a second straight session on Monday after Trump told the press he may grant “a lot of countries” exemptions from reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd. The remarks boosted risk sentiment, sending the Dow up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 climbed close to 2% and the Nasdaq gained over 2% by the close.
Overnight, Asian Pacific stock indices were less bullish. Hong Kong slumped 2%, the Shanghai Composite was unchanged, and other regional markets posted modest gains. In Europe, after a disappointing session yesterday where early gains were quickly sold into, stock indices are all firmer, playing catch-up with Wall Street’s rally last night.
Currency markets saw little movement overnight, with the dollar holding onto its recent gains. The yen continued to weaken, and the USDJPY is now approaching the 151.00 level as risk appetite gained traction. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming central bank commentary and some key economic data releases.
Gold and silver edged higher overnight, though the gains were modest. Gold continued to hold above $3,000, supported by underlying demand but lacking fresh momentum.
Oil has extended its rally, with front-month US Light now trading above $69, as it appears to have found a short-term base in the $65 region. If the current momentum holds, crude is on track for its fourth gain in five sessions, signalling renewed stability in the market.
Crypto prices pulled back after yesterday’s sharp rally, with Bitcoin retreating to $86,000 while Ether managed to hold above $2,000. The sector remains tied to broader risk sentiment, although profit-taking appears to be the dominant theme for now.
The VIX continued its decline, pulling back towards 18.00, falling quickly as risk-on sentiment gained traction. The days of sustained moves north of 20.00 seem like a distant memory, at least for now.
Plenty of Federal Reserve speakers are on tap today, which could provide further clarity on monetary policy expectations. Key data releases include:
Monday’s stock market surge reinforced the idea that Trump’s rhetoric still holds significant sway over market sentiment. His tariff flexibility remarks were enough to push markets higher, but with further trade actions already promised, the rally's sustainability remains a question.
Tesla’s 12% jump was one of the most eye-catching moves of the day—whether it signals a true recovery or just a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. Futures suggest a cautious open, but with sentiment shifting quickly, early moves may not dictate the entire session. It’s still early in the trading week, and as always, staying nimble will be key.
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