Asian Pacific stock indices little changed

US stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, with losses led by small cap stocks and technology. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both lost 0.3%, the Dow fell 0.4%, while the small cap Russell 2000 ended the day 0.9% lower. Investors trimmed their exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade in a move which saw NVIDIA fall for a second day.

Source: TN Trader

The generative AI chip designer pulled back further from Monday’s record intra-day high, which followed news of its $100 billion investment in OpenAI, owner of ChatGPT. Markets reacted positively to the news initially. But then concerns were raised about the circularity of the investment, suggesting that NVIDIA shouldn’t have to fund its customers to help them to buy its chips.

Meanwhile, Intel continues to fight back. Stock in the troubled US chipmaker soared this morning, hitting its highest level since July last year. Intel has jumped around 35% over the past week.

The rally overnight came after Bloomberg reported that Intel is seeking an investment from Apple, raising hopes for further strategic alliances and fresh capital. If successful, this would add to NVIDIA's promised $5 billion investment, along with a commitment to collaborate on new products. Bear in mind that the Trump administration purchased a 10% equity stake in Intel last month for $8.9 billion.

US stock index futures were mixed, but little changed, in early trade this morning. Traders have dialled back their Fed rate cut expectations a touch. This followed a speech from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly yesterday. She said further interest-rate cuts would probably be required, but that the Fed should exercise caution.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had sounded quite hawkish when he suggested that the path for future rate cuts was far from clear and that the US central bank faced a “challenging situation.” He added that: “…equity prices are fairly highly valued.” There are more Fed speakers expected today, while there’s also a stack of economic data, including an update on second quarter GDP, Durable Goods, weekly Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales.

Yesterday saw New Home Sales beat expectations by around 23%. But analysts were quick to call out the number as an anomaly. The surge came as builders offered discounts and other sales incentives to help encourage buyers in what is still a very jittery housing market.

The weekly Unemployment Claims number is now a key data point for investors. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised that slowing labour market conditions are weighing more heavily on policy decisions than sticky inflation, noting “a marked slowdown” in supply and demand dynamics.

Despite this, tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation update may also shift investor expectations over the speed and depth of additional easing measures from the US central bank.

European stock indices were weaker across the board in early trade on Thursday, with the healthcare and industrial sectors coming under pressure. The biggest downside moves were seen in the German DAX and French CAC, which were down 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, an hour after opening.

Source: TN Trader

The Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at zero, as expected. The German GfK Consumer Climate survey was also broadly in line with forecasts. It continues to indicate a fair amount of pessimism amongst those surveyed. The index has been stuck deep in negative territory for the last four years.

Gold was firmer in early trade this morning, and back within 1.0% of its all-time intra-day high from Tuesday. The gold rally had a brief pause yesterday, with prices down around 1.3% from Tuesday’s close before buyers came back in. This helped to keep the gold price comfortably above $3,700. Upside momentum has flattened out to some extent, following a strong run since late August.

Source: TN Trader

Gold had previously peaked in April at $3,500, and the daily MACD was very overbought at the time. But, following a brief pullback, gold consolidated in a relatively narrow range throughout the summer. This helped the MACD to reset around the neutral level. Then, it finally took off to the upside again, breaking through resistance at the top of the range just above $3,400.

Since then, it hasn’t looked back, coming within 10 cents of $3,800 on Tuesday. The current price action raises several questions: could it be that gold has now topped, or can it continue to rally from current levels? Alternatively, does gold need another pullback along with an extended period of consolidation? And if so, could this be enough to reset the MACD again, setting the metal up for another rally to fresh all-time highs?

It’s a similar situation in silver. On Tuesday, it closed above $44 per ounce for the first time in fourteen years. It slipped back yesterday but has surged higher this morning to trade within a few cents of $45 at the time of writing.

Silver is living up to its reputation as one of the most volatile of all markets. And, like gold, its daily MACD suggests that it is quite overbought at current levels. Unlike gold, silver has yet to take out its own all-time high of $50 from April 2011.

Can it push on from here, or are we about to experience a savage correction? And if the latter, could silver find a base from which to stage another leg in its rally, or will would-be buyers get scared off? Expect more fireworks.

Source: TN Trader

Crude oil prices pulled back in early trade this morning. The move follows a strong start to the week, which saw front-month WTI rally over 5% to come within a penny of $65 per barrel in yesterday’s session. Overall, WTI and Brent both added around 2.5% yesterday. The buying was triggered by an unexpected drop in last week’s US crude inventories. This added to existing concerns over the likelihood of significant supply issues emerging as Ukraine continues to pile on its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure.

Source: TN Trader

On the flip side, the market expects more supply within days following an agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan to reopen a joint pipeline, which passes through Turkey for the first time since March 2023. This should enable exports of around 230,000 barrels per day.

Natural gas settled into trade on the new November contract, with prices holding just above $3. The market’s positioning indicates a period of consolidation, as neither side has yet managed to push prices decisively higher or lower. With the broader range intact, gas remains steady, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming supply or demand shifts will trigger the next directional move.

Bitcoin took another lurch lower overnight, giving back all of yesterday’s gains. The daily MACD suggests that downside momentum has picked up, raising the possibility that Bitcoin has further to fall. If so, $110,000 looks like the first significant area of support.  

Ether has also dropped sharply and was, at the time of writing, testing significant support at $4,000 - a level last hit in early August. Should it break below here in a prolonged fashion, that would open up the risk of a drop back to $3,500. Once again, the crypto market is being hit by the liquidation of leveraged positions as traders go into ‘risk-off’ mode, as they question the regulatory outlook across both the US and Europe.

The VIX volatility index has crept higher this week but remains subdued. Despite some negative activity across equities and crypto, overall investor anxiety appears contained. This suggests that traders are waiting for fresh catalysts before repositioning, keeping volatility anchored in the near term.

US markets are taking a breather, with the S&P 500 currently down around 1% from Monday’s record closing high. The US dollar has steadied since the Dollar Index hit a multi-year low just over a week ago. Where it goes from here is likely to be determined by incoming data, particularly by job numbers and tomorrow’s PCE inflation update. Traders will also pay close attention to central bank commentary and a clutch of speeches from Fed members.