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This weeks update:
24 March 2025
Markets remain on edge as stocks swing wildly, gold hits all-time highs, and oil struggles to find direction.
Last week saw extreme volatility in US markets, with investors reacting to the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision.
Despite holding rates steady, the Fed reassured traders with a forecast of two rate cuts this year and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction. However, uncertainty over inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risks kept investors cautious.
Meanwhile, gold surged past $3,000 before pulling back, while crude oil faces a battle between supply cuts and weak demand. Looking ahead, all eyes are on key economic data, including the US Core PCE inflation report and global PMI updates.
Let’s dive into the details!
US Markets: Volatility spikes as investors seek direction
US stock index futures had a rollercoaster week. After an initial rally following the Fed’s decision to maintain rates and slow quantitative tightening, markets turned sharply lower on Thursday in a sudden risk-off move.
The S&P 500 tumbled from over 5,700 to 5,630 in just over an hour before staging a partial recovery.
While some traders view this dip as a buying opportunity, others remain cautious due to lingering concerns over tariffs, government spending cuts, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Market sentiment remains fragile, and traders are looking for a catalyst to drive the next major move.
FX: US dollar rebounds from oversold levels
The US dollar continues to push higher, with the Dollar Index approaching 104.00.
Traders are watching closely to see if it can retest resistance near 105.00 in the coming weeks. A failure to break higher could bring renewed bearish pressure on the greenback.
*Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold: Record highs, but is a pullback coming?
Gold hit an all-time high of $3,057 per ounce last Thursday following the Fed’s dovish stance.
While traders initially cheered the outlook for rate cuts and slower balance sheet reduction, gold quickly pulled back from its highs.
The big question now: Will $3,000 hold as support? If not, we could see a deeper pullback before the next leg higher.
*Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Crude Oil: Supply cuts vs. demand fears
Oil prices rallied through $68 per barrel last week, marking the highest level since early March. However, despite holding above key support at $65, uncertainty remains high.
Fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil and an upcoming OPEC+ supply cut plan could tighten short-term supply. But with demand concerns lingering, traders are watching closely for any signs of a breakout.
Economic calendar: What’s next?
It’s a packed week for economic data, starting with global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Monday from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting minutes will also be released.
On Tuesday, traders will watch the Bank of Japan’s Core CPI, followed by Germany’s ifo Business Climate Survey and the UK’s CBI Realised Sales. The US will release key housing data, consumer confidence, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
Midweek brings inflation updates from Australia and the UK, US Durable Goods Orders, and the Crude Oil Inventories report. Thursday features the final US Q4 GDP revision, weekly unemployment claims, and key US housing market data.
But the highlight of the week comes on Friday with the US Core PCE inflation update - the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which could set the tone for rate expectations.
This week's key earnings:
Monday
KB Home
Oklo
Enerpac Tool Group
Tuesday
McCormick & Co.
GameStop
Core & Main
BiliBili
Smithfield Foods
Wednesday
Cintas Corp.
Paychex
Dollar Tree
Chewy
Jeffries Financial
HB Fuller
Thursday
Lululemon
Ermenegildo Zegna
Friday
Walgreens Boots Alliance
Cal-Maine Foods
Telesat Corp
This week’s top article:
What is a bull trap & how to avoid it? - A complete guide
Ever thought you were catching the perfect breakout, only for the market to reverse against you? That’s a bull trap - a common pitfall for traders.
In this article, we break down what a bull trap is, why it happens, and how to avoid falling into one. If you’ve ever been caught in a false rally, this is a must-read!
Trade bold, stay sharp, and seize every opportunity!
*Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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