Oil rises on US-EU trade deal and Russia sanctions threat

David Morrison

SENIOR MARKET ANALYST

29 July 2025

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Oil prices were firmer this morning, building on yesterday’s gains in early trade. Crude was up around 3% at one stage on Monday on renewed hopes over the outlook for global trade. This followed news that the US and EU had reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU exports to the US, half the 30% levy most recently threatened by President Trump.

Crude oil also got a boost after President Trump announced a 10 to 12 day deadline for Russia to start winding down its war with Ukraine or face further sanctions on energy exports. This new deadline is well below the 50 days Mr Trump announced earlier this month.

Front-month WTI briefly poked its head above $67 per barrel before pulling back a touch. Then it rallied again to hit its highest level in a fortnight. WTI remains in a trading range with support currently coming in around $65 and resistance around $67.50.

Source: TradingView

While the bulls were encouraged by the possibility of a trade-related demand boost, lingering concerns around oversupply and macro risks continue to act as headwinds.


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