CME Group outage disrupts trade

US stock indices were higher across the board on Wednesday, ahead of yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday. This marked their fourth successive positive session, which has helped the majors recoup most, if not all, of the losses from earlier this month. But traders returned this morning to find that there was an outage at CME Group, the world’s biggest exchange operator by market capitalisation. This meant no pricing in US stock index futures, gold, 10-year Treasuries and WTI Crude.

The CME said it was working to fix the issue, and, at the time of writing, it looks as if some futures markets are coming back online. But if this proves to be wrong, traders will have to wait until cash markets open later this afternoon to find out where prices really are.

For what it’s worth, it looks as if equities may see a mild bid when they reopen, adding to gains made since last Friday. If so, this may prove to be the best week for US stock indices since late June.

Despite this week’s rebound, November has still been a challenging month. Elevated valuations, particularly across tech and those at the forefront of the Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) trade, have tempered enthusiasm. As things stand, the S&P 500 and Dow sit marginally lower for November, while the NASDAQ is around 2% below where it closed out October. Only the small cap, domestically focused Russell 2000 looks as if it will post a positive November.

Source: TN Trader

The trigger for the bounce-back was a renewed bout of dovishness from several Federal Reserve members. This helped to boost the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month from 30% last week to 85% on Wednesday. But aside from this, investors will be keeping a close eye on Nvidia.

Stock in the chip designer fell from a record closing high of $210 at the end of last month to below $170 on Tuesday, for an overall decline of 19%. The selloff was triggered by some high-profile selling. But there are also concerns that Nvidia finally has some serious competition.

Meta Platforms, one of Nvidia’s high-profile customers, is talking to Google about using its proprietary tensor processing units in Meta’s data centres. The news sent Alphabet’s (Google’s parent company) share price soaring to new all-time highs. This would suggest that the AGI trade is still working. But it could simultaneously signal that Nvidia’s near-monopoly on high-end chips is coming to an end.

European stock indices had a quiet start to the last trading session of November. With the US closed yesterday for Thanksgiving, and US stock index futures pricing delayed by an outage at a data centre used by CME Group, most traders sat on their hands, while others twiddled their fingers. All were pondering if 9:00 am was too early to hit the pub.

US futures came back online around 11:00 am, indicating a modest bid up from Wednesday's close. The UK’s FTSE 100 pushed into positive territory, while European indices were mixed. As things stand, the FTSE, DAX and CAC are on course to end November with modest losses, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged.

Source: TN Trader

As FX is traded across many different platforms, it was relatively unaffected by the CME Group’s outage. The feature of early trade was a recovery in the US dollar. This saw the Dollar Index push above 99.50, which is a handful of ticks above October’s close. Over the past month, the Dollar Index has made several credible attempts to take out resistance at 100.00. Each time, resistance has held.

Source: TN Trader

Last week, it suffered a strong rejection, which saw it drop sharply towards 99.00. But buyers have come in over the last couple of days to steady the ship. It’s now fair to say that the dollar has priced in expectations of a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in December.

The USD/JPY was flat again this morning, with the rate barely changed from Tuesday’s close. The yen has weakened sharply this month. The USD/JPY closed at 154.00 at the end of October. Just over a week ago, it traded at a 10-month high just under 158.00, representing a drop of 2.6% for the yen against the dollar.

The move boosted speculation that Japan’s Ministry of Finance may intervene to strengthen the yen, particularly as a lack of liquidity over the Thanksgiving holiday could boost the effects of intervention. It looks as if Japanese policymakers have managed to talk the yen up a touch. But intervention could well be on the cards again should the USD/JPY push back up to 158.00-160.00.

Gold came within a few dollars of $4,200 overnight, to hit its best levels in two weeks. This was when it managed to break above here before sellers emerged and pushed it back down again. $4,200 is an obvious level of significant resistance. And gold has made slow, but steady progress back up to here after bouncing off support at $4,000 ten days ago.

The daily MACD is just above neutral levels, although, as it's been trailing sideways for some time, there’s no evidence of strong upside momentum. Despite this, the situation looks quite positive from a bullish perspective. But should gold experience another solid rejection at $4,200, bullish sentiment could evaporate in a flash.

Source: TN Trader

Silver spiked up above $54.30 first thing this morning, taking it to its best levels in over a fortnight. That took it back up to within sight of its all-time intra-day high of $54.60 from mid-October. This means that silver appears to be forming a triple-top, which, according to some technical analysts, is a strong signal that prices could reverse sharply from here.

No doubt a triple-top is more concerning than a double-top, and it’s fair to say that the latter hasn’t worked out so well as a sell signal, given where prices are now. So, many traders will be on the lookout for a price drop from here. On the other side of the argument, silver may rally on to fresh all-time highs, thereby invalidating the set-up.

The daily MACD has started to curl up, suggesting an uptick in upside momentum. And there is no suggestion from the daily, and shorter-term MACDs, that silver is overbought. But longer-term momentum indicators do suggest that silver may have some froth to blow off. So, traders should be very vigilant going into the weekend.

Source: TN Trader

The CME Group outage has affected trading on WTI. While other futures markets are back to normal, WTI pricing was unavailable as midday approached in the UK. But Brent prices showed that crude had pulled back a touch today following Thursday’s rally.

Despite this, there was no indication that oil was ready to break out from the mild downward trend which had been building over the past four to five weeks. Traders looked ahead to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, with the market already pricing in expectations of another pause in production increases.

Source: TN Trader

OPEC+ has already reduced its monthly output increases, even as it continues to reverse significant production cuts which began a few years ago. The group has already indicated that it will hold off on increasing output further during the first quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, US officials are preparing to visit Moscow next week as part of efforts to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. President Putin indicated that US proposals could form the basis for future talks, a shift that could have significant implications for Russian supply flows if sanctions ease. Yet the broader tone remains bearish.

Oil is on track for its fourth straight monthly decline, the longest such run since 2023, weighed down by expectations of a global surplus and rising output outside the OPEC+ alliance. JPMorgan estimates a potential surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026.

Gas prices held elevated near recent highs, maintaining a firm tone despite the broader quiet trading environment. No fresh drivers emerged, though the market continues to reflect recent upward momentum.

Bitcoin and Ether were little changed on Friday, with volumes lighter than usual due to Thanksgiving. This allowed the markets to consolidate after a week-long rally off multi-month lows.

Volatility was little changed this morning. The VIX remains well below last week’s peaks as market sentiment continues to stabilise and risk appetite improves. Holiday-thinned trading volumes continue to dampen movement.

The bulls are looking to close out a volatile month on the front foot. Seasonal trends and recent momentum lean in their favour, and the probability of a Fed rate cut next month remains high. With US markets operating on a half-day schedule and volumes expected to stay light, the session is likely to be subdued. A quiet, holiday-affected end to November appears the most probable outcome as traders prepare for the last leg into year-end.