Trump’s potential G20 no-show: Implications for South African trade and the rand

South Africa has been a G20 member since its inception - joining the Finance Track in 1999 and participating in Leaders’ Summits since 2008 - and remains the only permanent African member. This year marks its first time hosting, and Johannesburg’s summit will be the first G20 held on African soil.

Assuming the G20 presidency in December 2024, Pretoria adopted the theme “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability,” signalling a focus on Global South priorities. Key agenda items include African development, debt relief, infrastructure financing, climate adaptation, and reforming global governance structures. Initiatives such as the “Cost of Capital Commission” and a push for green transition finance and disaster resilience underscore South Africa’s priorities.

However, Pretoria must balance its role as both a G20 president and BRICS chair - a balancing act that includes expanding BRICS to new African members. The path has been complicated by uneven engagement from major economies: at a February 2025 finance ministers’ meeting in Cape Town, ministers from the US, China, Japan, India, and Canada were absent, foreshadowing difficulties in building consensus.

Since the forum’s creation, sitting US presidents have almost always attended G20 summits. The sole precedent for a president-elect not attending came in 2008, when Barack Obama opted out of that year’s Washington summit, leaving participation to President George W. Bush. No incumbent US president has skipped a major G20 Leaders’ Summit on foreign soil.

The closest exception was the 2020 Riyadh summit, which was held virtually due to COVID-19. In 2025, Washington has already declined participation in several ministerial meetings, but if Trump were to miss Johannesburg entirely, it would be unprecedented for a sitting president.

South African officials say they have strong support from other G20 nations and intend to proceed regardless of Washington’s stance. Some analysts believe Trump’s absence could create space for China and Russia to exert greater influence.

David Monyae of the University of Johannesburg questioned, “What is G20 without the United States?” warning that a reduced US role could undermine the forum’s credibility. Beijing has openly backed South Africa’s presidency, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledging to work “with all parties to support the South African presidency.” Moscow has also shown interest, with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expected to meet with several developing-country G20 members at the summit.

European leaders have expressed concern, albeit in diplomatic terms. Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation. Across the bloc, officials have highlighted that the absence of US leadership will make reaching consensus on trade, climate, and debt far more challenging.

Opinions are divided on how damaging a US no-show would be. Some argue that leader-level negotiations would be less effective without the US president, especially as South Africa has already struggled to produce a joint statement in preparatory meetings. Others note that the G20’s decisions are largely non-binding and the summit could still function with high-level ministerial participation.

The risk, however, is that the absence of US leadership would deepen East–West divisions. Developing nations may push a more climate - and equity-focused agenda, while Washington was expected to prioritise debt and security.

Ultimately, G20 members agree that global challenges - from trade to climate change – require cooperative leadership. Whether or not Trump attends in November, the summit will serve as a litmus test for the G20’s ability to maintain relevance and cohesion in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape.

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