In the forex market, the US dollar remains under pressure, with ongoing trade tensions denting its appeal. The Dollar Index drifted lower on Monday, retesting last week’s three-year low hit. Ironically, tariffs were once touted as a net positive for the dollar—a narrative that now appears less convincing.

Sterling was pushing back up towards 1.3200 against the dollar, closing in once again on seven-month highs hit last week. The EUR/USD extended recent gains in early trade. The euro hovered just below Friday’s highs when the EUR/USD hit its best levels since February 2022. This comes ahead of a closely watched ECB meeting later this week. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to attract buying interest as investors lean into safe-haven assets amid the volatility.

Gold was firmer overnight but pulled back from its best levels early in the European session. Gold closed at a fresh all-time high on Friday, just below $3,250. It remains popular as a safe haven play, but the daily MACD suggests that it is very overbought at current levels.  

Silver continues to underperform. The metal was lower overnight and remains firmly in gold’s shadow — a trend that’s been stubbornly consistent in recent sessions.

Oil was little-changed in early trade, held back by sentiment swings and the impact of trade tensions. With ample supply and anaemic demand, crude continues to struggle for upside momentum.

Cryptocurrency markets posted a modest rebound overnight, but prices have pulled back from session highs. Bitcoin was trading around $85,000 early in the European session, reflecting broader market sentiment and generally moving in line with US stock indices. The sector continues to mirror the tone of equities, but significant upside traction remains elusive for now.

The VIX fell 5%, easing into the low 30s but still well above comfort levels. The decline offers a bit of relief after last week’s spike, which saw the index hit the mid-40s, a clear signal of increased fear and disorder. While volatility has cooled slightly, the index is still flashing warning signs that stock markets remain unstable.

Today’s calendar is quiet on the data front, but plenty of Fed speak is expected throughout the day.

Looking ahead, the rest of the week is stacked. On deck are:

• ECB and BOC rate decisions
• UK CPI data
• US Retail Sales

On the earnings side, investment banking heavyweight Goldman Sachs will report today, which could have a material impact on the Dow. Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, and Citigroup will also report this week as the first quarter earnings season steps up a gear.

In international news, Chinese exports jumped 12% in March as many businesses frontloaded shipments to avoid tariffs. The data offers a snapshot of how seriously exporters are taking the uncertainty and how they’re adapting in real-time.

Tariffs remain in focus, but stock markets are trying to rebound — at least for now — as tech exemptions offer a glimmer of hope, however temporary. With smartphones and PCs spared the latest round of levies, the Nasdaq looks best positioned to benefit in the near term.

The dollar’s weakness, while notable, may be overdone if sentiment shifts. The original thesis was that tariffs would support the greenback — but that logic is now being tested.

Goldman’s earnings will likely be a major driver for the Dow today. Traders should watch the tape closely because while the tone may be upbeat for now, the tariff wildcard remains firmly in play.