Asian-Pacific indices mostly firmer

US stock indices posted a mixed close on Monday, with only the Russell 2000 ending the session in positive territory. There were modest losses for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which closed down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. This ended the NASDAQ’s impressive run of thirteen successive positive sessions. The Dow was flat on the day.

Source: TN Trader

Despite some unimpressive ‘scores on the doors’ to mark the session’s trade, all the US majors showed their resilience by making back most of their early losses. These followed a weekend of skirmishes between the US and Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which threatened the fragile two-week ceasefire.

The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. This followed reports that Iran had fired on commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

The US continues its blockade of Iranian ports in the region, leading Tehran to say it will take no part in peace negotiations, due to take place in Pakistan today, while it remains under US threat. The ceasefire deadline ends on Wednesday evening, Washington time.

Later today, Federal Reserve Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh will attend his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. In prepared and leaked remarks, Mr Warsh will emphasise the importance of central bank independence yet insist that politicians giving their views on interest rates won’t affect this.

He is likely to state that the Federal Reserve “must stay in its lane” and warn that its independence is most at risk when it strays into fiscal or social policy areas. He will emphasise that the Fed should focus, first and foremost, on inflation, with unemployment, the other half of its dual mandate, being secondary.

Meanwhile, Senator Tillis has said he will not vote on this confirmation until the Department of Justice backs off from its pursuit of Jerome Powell over the alleged overspend on refurbishing the Fed’s buildings.

Companies reporting earnings ahead of Tuesday’s opening bell, including Danaher, GE Aerospace, 3M, Northrop Grumman, Halliburton, Quest Diagnostics, RTX, Tractor Supply and Genuine Parts. UnitedHealth announced a set of strong numbers along with positive forward guidance, helping to boost the Dow ahead of the open. March Retail Sales data was also scheduled for release later in the session.

European stock indices were modestly firmer across the board in early trade on Tuesday. Investors took their lead from US stock index futures, which made early gains, with the S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all closing in on their respective all-time intra-day highs.

Source: TN Trader

Investors continue to monitor developments around potential peace talks, particularly after President Trump again warned Iran that overwhelming military force would be used if no agreement is reached before the ceasefire expires tomorrow evening.

Economic data from the UK showed unemployment falling to 4.9% in the three-month period to February, below expectations of 5.2%, while wage growth rose 3.6% year-on-year. Both the Eurozone and German ZEW fell deeply into negative territory to post their worst readings in a year, back at the height of the Trump Tariff Temper Tantrum.

The US dollar was firmer across the board this morning, making back all its losses from yesterday. The cash Dollar Index is once again butting up against resistance at 98.00 as investors monitor developments surrounding US–Iran negotiations.

Source: TN Trader

President Trump is expected to hold a phone interview with CNBC later today, just as the latest update on US Retail Sales is released. These are projected to rise 1.4% month-on-month, compared with a 0.6% increase in February.

Federal Reserve Chairman-designate, Kevin Warsh, will testify before the Senate Banking Committee later today. But this is not expected to move markets much, given that the text of his statement has already been released. This means that diplomatic activity remains a central focus.

Vice President JD Vance was expected to travel to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran, joined by Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff. Iran may also send a delegation, although it is unclear who will lead the team.

There is also some uncertainty over this, as Tehran said it is unwilling to negotiate while the US threatens it during a ceasefire by blockading its ports around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, President Trump said he is unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire, due to end tomorrow evening.

Gold extended its decline below $4,800 in early trade on Tuesday. As with many risk assets currently, investors seem unsure how to position themselves in anticipation of the next significant move.

The precious metal has put in an impressive recovery since dropping to $4,100 a month ago. But it now shows signs of having run out of upside momentum as it consolidates around the $4,800 area. The daily MACD has flattened out around the ‘neutral’ level, having been rather oversold at the end of March.

Source: TN Trader

Yet again, gold has fallen under the spell of the US dollar, which means that any rally in the greenback is weighing on it, as things stand. Investors remain focused on whether negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan will proceed.

Although Iranian officials expressed hesitation about participating while the US blockade of its ports remains in place, reports suggested that a delegation could still travel to Islamabad.

Silver has also pulled back this morning, having traded up to $80.70 in the early hours of Monday. Silver was flatlining around $79 per ounce mid-morning in Europe, and, as with gold, there were no obvious indications about what it may do next.

It hit a fourteen-week low of around $61 around a month ago, and its daily MACD is now trading at ‘neutral’ levels, after being very oversold. But silver now lacks overall direction and is trading on the whim of the US dollar. This looks unlikely to change until there’s at least some clarity over the outcome of the US-Iran war and the state of the Strait of Hormuz.

Source: TN Trader

Crude oil was a touch weaker in early trade this morning. There is continued uncertainty over whether further peace negotiations between the US and Iran are likely to take place, or not, ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow evening. Despite this, both front-month Brent and WTI have largely been rangebound since the early hours of Monday morning.

Brent has rarely strayed outside of $90-$92, while WTI has mostly kept within the borders of $86-$88 per barrel. Investors are back in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of possible US-Iran peace negotiations in Pakistan.

Source: TN Trader

Vice President JD Vance was expected to lead the US delegation, although Iranian rhetoric suggested reluctance to return to talks. Iran’s parliament speaker reiterated that Tehran would not accept negotiations under threat conditions as the US continues to blockade Iranian ports in and around the Persian Gulf. He warned that the country had prepared new responses on the battlefield.

President Trump responded by saying that “lots of bombs will start going off” if no agreement is reached before the ceasefire expires, highlighting the fragile nature of the diplomatic situation.

Bitcoin continues to build a base since it dropped to a five-month low just above $60,000 in early February. Back then, sentiment was very negative, and there was a real danger that Bitcoin could drop further to test another significant support area around $40,000. But since then, Bitcoin has managed to build a base as it has slowly but steadily pushed higher.

It now appears to be edging up towards $80,000, which will prove a major test for the bulls. In this, it is aided by its daily MACD, which continues to indicate that momentum is to the upside.

Against this is the concern that the crypto sector may be overdue for a pullback. But cryptos, and perhaps Bitcoin in particular, can be said to have had a ‘good war’ so far, with none of the volatility displayed by other risk assets, even if most US stock indices are currently trading at, or close to, all-time highs. This marked decline in crypto volatility has gone a long way in calming investor fears that Bitcoin is an investable asset.

Volatility indicators remain relatively steady as markets await further developments surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran. War aside, corporate earnings are proving to be a major driver of positive sentiment, with results from UnitedHealth and 3M among the standouts so far today.

Strategists at Wells Fargo projected the S&P 500 could peak near 7,300 by July, implying roughly a 3% gain from current levels. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq’s recent 13-session winning streak ended with only modest losses, highlighting continued resilience in equity markets even as geopolitical developments introduced fresh uncertainty.